Whatever happened to companies promoting their products based on what their product does or doesn't do; how their product tastes; how it works; how long it lasts, what it's used for; what you can do with it; its price; its value; its quality or the fact that it is on sale this week?
I personally was not offended by the message of the "America" Coca Cola ad during the Super Bowl last night, but it's an example of why so many of us have grown weary of having moral, social, religious and political issues, agendas, judgement, enlightenment, debate, arguments, indoctrination, etc., forced on us at every turn while watching TV, reading social media, surfing the Internet, listening to music or viewing visual art. So many people want to use art, entertainment and now advertising to push views. We are being bombarded by so many messages and before long it's all just noise.
Many complain that Christmas is either too commercial, too secular or too religious. Well, when commercial advertising and entertainment becomes too pontifical and self-righteous, especially when it cuts against the grain of my own beliefs, then I vote with my dollars. And regardless of the views some artists and entertainers take, it bothers me that so much stock is placed in the view simply because the source can entertain. Just because they can play a guitar, were blessed with golden vocal chords or can pretend to be someone else in front of a camera doesn't give their view any more credence than that of a hotel desk clerk, a plumber or a registered nurse. In fact, I believe the latter examples should be given more credibility since there are legions more of those people in this country than the anointed few gracing movie screens, music venues and radio stations.
I have reached the point that I will boycott your movie, music, book, poem, commercial, etc. if I disagree with your point of view. Why? Because you chose to open that door, I will make my buying and viewing decisions based on whether or not I like what you say whether it pervades your work or you use your celebrity to pontificate in the news media. That's the risk you take when you open your opiate hole and in a free and open society (for now at least), you live by the sword and you die by the sword.
And if you don't believe that failing to choose your words carefully on social, political or other issues and forcing them onto the hard working consumers that buy your work will wreck your career, just ask the Dixie Chicks. When your salary is largely paid by fans whose opinions run counter to yours and you choose to throw your self-righteous indignation in their faces, don't be surprised when those fans zip up their purses, put their wallets back in their pockets and commence with the career-destroying backlash you so richly deserve. You are entitled to your opinion, but right or wrong, actions have consequences.
As for the TV commercials and much of the crap that permeates commercial television, thank goodness for the DVR, especially its skip forward feature.
Monday, February 3, 2014
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Amazon's hare-brained Prime Air
Our world is rapidly changing. And while we have not seen flying cars on the horizon, Amazon's proposed Prime Air service is stepping into that direction.
Amazon's CEO Jeff Bezos unveiled the company's Prime Air concept recently on news magazine 60 Minutes. If you haven't seen it, Bezos plans to send Prime Air subscribers their products via unmanned aerial vehicles -- drones in common parlance -- in 30 minutes... yes half the time of the show on which it was first featured.
However innovative and visionary, the concept is simply fraught with overwhelming logistical and other challenges, not the least of which are government hurdles, hacking, safety and theft.
I just cannot imagine a scenario where this can be efficient or cost effective to even a small percentage of Amazon's consumer market. As demonstrated on 60 Minutes, the service will use a drone about the size of a St. Bernard carrying a single container about the size of a bread box. It simply cannot economically or efficiently replace UPS, FedEx and USPS delivery vehicles full of hundreds of packages each.
If the price of the service is exorbitant, who is going to pay outrageous delivery prices for the vast majority of what Amazon peddles? If the price is reasonable, it could saturate the skies with drones and drive the tinfoil hat community into a paranoid frenzy.
First, let's put this into context with some numbers. Amazon says its current Prime shipping two-day service is utilized more than its standard free shipping option. We don't know the exact breakdown, but let's say half. Amazon sells over 300 products a second, that's over 25 million products a day. If only one percent of shoppers utilize the Prime Air service, that's 250,000 deliveries a day. To put it into closer focus, that could mean 5,400 drones in the air every thirty minutes based solely on one percent of transactions.
The most expensive item I have ever purchased on Amazon was a $500 television set. It is doubtful Prime Air could or would deliver this type of item. Most of the items that can fit in the container could not be worth what is surely a pricey per-delivery option. I cannot see paying even a $100 30-minute delivery fee for ink jet cartridges so I can print up that important proposal for work or that term paper to meet the due deadline or a set up Ginsu steak knives for a last minute anniversary gift... although the latter might save some real headaches. But if you're planning on giving Ginsu knives as an anniversary gift, you have much bigger problems.
Assuming the one percent take rate scenario, to make the 30-minute delivery target, there would have to be fulfillment centers everywhere within a 30 minute flight. And that is not even considering the time it takes for the warehouse worker to pick and load each item. Even if one percent of customers took advantage of Prime Air, that is still 250,000 packages a day.
It is most likely this service will only be offered in the largest metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, etc. And it is also likely this service will only be affordable for a small percentage of Amazon customers, needing things that quickly a limited amount of time.
It is a wild, hare-brained vision and it clearly has challenges and I haven't even touched on the regulatory, safety or other challenges mentioned earlier. The physical logistics of getting from point A to point B alone seem unwieldy. And these drones -- as previewed -- are not going to set any air speed records.
Some speculate this is simply an Amazon holiday season publicity stunt. And we know 60 Minutes has been susceptible to being duped of late. Perhaps it's a PR ploy, but to what end? Posture Bezos as the next eccentric Steve Jobsesque tech visionary? Drive traffic and hence sales to the Amazon website? The latter makes more business sense, but not much. I doubt people will flock to Amazon in hopes of having a drone fly Santa's bounty to their doorstep, only to discover it is still in research and development yet still buy that set of Ginsu knives for Aunt Betty's Christmas gift.
But, hey, Amazon's prime delivery vendor UPS' did see a .226 of one percent dip in its stock price by close of trading Monday, the day after the story aired. Don't count on UPS executives shaking in their brown boots anytime soon. Although I did see a UPS driver Tuesday with a propellor hat. Coincidence I'm sure.
But, Jeff Bezos has been called crazy before. Just cannot imagine many realistic scenarios where I would need anything Amazon sells in 30 minutes or less at a hugely inflated delivery price that was not available locally.
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The last, big 30-minute delivery scheme known to most was offered by Domino's Pizza. But they scrapped their 30-minute delivery guarantee 20 years ago amid lawsuits stemming from zealous delivery drivers trying to meet delivery deadlines. Imagine thousands of drones flying around at low altitudes carrying God knows what in their cargo baskets... with larcenous duck hunters and the tinfoil hat/black helicopter conspiracy wackos lighting up the skies like the London Blitz.
Amazon's CEO Jeff Bezos unveiled the company's Prime Air concept recently on news magazine 60 Minutes. If you haven't seen it, Bezos plans to send Prime Air subscribers their products via unmanned aerial vehicles -- drones in common parlance -- in 30 minutes... yes half the time of the show on which it was first featured.
However innovative and visionary, the concept is simply fraught with overwhelming logistical and other challenges, not the least of which are government hurdles, hacking, safety and theft.
I just cannot imagine a scenario where this can be efficient or cost effective to even a small percentage of Amazon's consumer market. As demonstrated on 60 Minutes, the service will use a drone about the size of a St. Bernard carrying a single container about the size of a bread box. It simply cannot economically or efficiently replace UPS, FedEx and USPS delivery vehicles full of hundreds of packages each.
If the price of the service is exorbitant, who is going to pay outrageous delivery prices for the vast majority of what Amazon peddles? If the price is reasonable, it could saturate the skies with drones and drive the tinfoil hat community into a paranoid frenzy.
First, let's put this into context with some numbers. Amazon says its current Prime shipping two-day service is utilized more than its standard free shipping option. We don't know the exact breakdown, but let's say half. Amazon sells over 300 products a second, that's over 25 million products a day. If only one percent of shoppers utilize the Prime Air service, that's 250,000 deliveries a day. To put it into closer focus, that could mean 5,400 drones in the air every thirty minutes based solely on one percent of transactions.
The most expensive item I have ever purchased on Amazon was a $500 television set. It is doubtful Prime Air could or would deliver this type of item. Most of the items that can fit in the container could not be worth what is surely a pricey per-delivery option. I cannot see paying even a $100 30-minute delivery fee for ink jet cartridges so I can print up that important proposal for work or that term paper to meet the due deadline or a set up Ginsu steak knives for a last minute anniversary gift... although the latter might save some real headaches. But if you're planning on giving Ginsu knives as an anniversary gift, you have much bigger problems.
Assuming the one percent take rate scenario, to make the 30-minute delivery target, there would have to be fulfillment centers everywhere within a 30 minute flight. And that is not even considering the time it takes for the warehouse worker to pick and load each item. Even if one percent of customers took advantage of Prime Air, that is still 250,000 packages a day.
It is most likely this service will only be offered in the largest metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, etc. And it is also likely this service will only be affordable for a small percentage of Amazon customers, needing things that quickly a limited amount of time.
It is a wild, hare-brained vision and it clearly has challenges and I haven't even touched on the regulatory, safety or other challenges mentioned earlier. The physical logistics of getting from point A to point B alone seem unwieldy. And these drones -- as previewed -- are not going to set any air speed records.
Some speculate this is simply an Amazon holiday season publicity stunt. And we know 60 Minutes has been susceptible to being duped of late. Perhaps it's a PR ploy, but to what end? Posture Bezos as the next eccentric Steve Jobsesque tech visionary? Drive traffic and hence sales to the Amazon website? The latter makes more business sense, but not much. I doubt people will flock to Amazon in hopes of having a drone fly Santa's bounty to their doorstep, only to discover it is still in research and development yet still buy that set of Ginsu knives for Aunt Betty's Christmas gift.
But, hey, Amazon's prime delivery vendor UPS' did see a .226 of one percent dip in its stock price by close of trading Monday, the day after the story aired. Don't count on UPS executives shaking in their brown boots anytime soon. Although I did see a UPS driver Tuesday with a propellor hat. Coincidence I'm sure.
But, Jeff Bezos has been called crazy before. Just cannot imagine many realistic scenarios where I would need anything Amazon sells in 30 minutes or less at a hugely inflated delivery price that was not available locally.
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The last, big 30-minute delivery scheme known to most was offered by Domino's Pizza. But they scrapped their 30-minute delivery guarantee 20 years ago amid lawsuits stemming from zealous delivery drivers trying to meet delivery deadlines. Imagine thousands of drones flying around at low altitudes carrying God knows what in their cargo baskets... with larcenous duck hunters and the tinfoil hat/black helicopter conspiracy wackos lighting up the skies like the London Blitz.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
ASU Audit Report Starts Blame Game to No One's Surprise
When the governor's office released the findings of a third party forensic accounting firm on its financial misdeeds, Alabama State University leadership predictably launched a misdirection campaign to place the blame on those parties interested in uncovering the truth and exposing those responsible for wielding undue influence behind the scenes. These allegations point to ethical and fiduciary breaches at best and criminal conduct at worst. And if you believe the misdirection campaign, it is simply a political vendetta by the sitting governor... a governor whose primary concerns were running his dermatology practice and representing the people of House District 63 when many of these misdeeds first took place.
Let there be no mistake, this is a problem of ASU's own making. Its incompetent ousting of former president Joseph Silver set this whole process in motion. And let there be no mistake that this is a case of rotting from the inside. It wasn't the Governor who staged student protests over Silver's dismissal. It wasn't the Governor or his office that dumped damning financial documents on Dr. Silver's doorstep. Governor Bentley was drawn into this mess and as ex officio president of the board of trustees of every public university in Alabama, it is certainly his business.
The blame game will hit home for those looking to deflect responsibility from University officials, but it will not ring true to the students, alumni and community who were outraged at the handling of the Silver situation. Make no mistake that some of the ASU constituency will refuse to peel back the layers of the onion and insist the problems are the cause of some political conspiracy when they should look no further than those occupying offices in Councill Hall.
Anyone following current events in the Gump for very long, at least those whose head doesn't stay buried in the sand, knows that for years there have been rumors of financial mismanagement, nepotism, misappropriation of funds, no-performance contracts and some seedy gossip which to mention at this point would only belie the serious nature of the allegations currently at play.
I urge those who love ASU and believe in its important mission in higher education and the benefits it brings to the Montgomery community, let this play out and pay no attention to the static and misdirection.
Let there be no mistake, this is a problem of ASU's own making. Its incompetent ousting of former president Joseph Silver set this whole process in motion. And let there be no mistake that this is a case of rotting from the inside. It wasn't the Governor who staged student protests over Silver's dismissal. It wasn't the Governor or his office that dumped damning financial documents on Dr. Silver's doorstep. Governor Bentley was drawn into this mess and as ex officio president of the board of trustees of every public university in Alabama, it is certainly his business.
The blame game will hit home for those looking to deflect responsibility from University officials, but it will not ring true to the students, alumni and community who were outraged at the handling of the Silver situation. Make no mistake that some of the ASU constituency will refuse to peel back the layers of the onion and insist the problems are the cause of some political conspiracy when they should look no further than those occupying offices in Councill Hall.
Anyone following current events in the Gump for very long, at least those whose head doesn't stay buried in the sand, knows that for years there have been rumors of financial mismanagement, nepotism, misappropriation of funds, no-performance contracts and some seedy gossip which to mention at this point would only belie the serious nature of the allegations currently at play.
I urge those who love ASU and believe in its important mission in higher education and the benefits it brings to the Montgomery community, let this play out and pay no attention to the static and misdirection.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
MPS leadership still doesn't get it
Vent Warning:
I mean no offense to the new interim Montgomery Public Schools superintendent. I hear Ms. Allen is a nice and competent lady. But paying an interim more than the departed superintendent simply has the smell of rotting fish.
While the school system is not in dire financial straits (yet), it certainly could use some significant fiduciary discipline and should give more thought to quickly elevating the salary of a temporary superintendent above what the predecessor made. It is rare indeed where a sitting employee is called on to perform duties on an interim basis and not only get the same pay, but get a raise. This is an example of how government could benefit from an infusion of real world business savvy and know-how. That scenario simply doesn't occur in the corporate world, at least not with any businesses that wish to stay in business. Of course, this could signal that the interim superintendent is a permanent option despite declarations to the contrary.
One positive signal coming from MPS's interim chief is news that she is putting the Montgomery Mall boondoggle on the back burner.
It just makes me crazy when I hear some of the things that surface in this school system. So many of which never see the light of day in local news reports, primarily because the school system does its best to quash negative news from schools.
Did you hear about the student at a local high school who was hospitalized after being beaten at the school by other students? No? Well, you're not alone. I heard the student was in critical condition at one point, but cannot confirm that.
Did you hear the one about the representative from the State Department of Education who observed a teacher sleeping while the students in his charge ran amok in the classroom? No? Well, don't be surprised.
Do you know about the ZAP policy? Not surprised. ZAP stands for Zeroes Aren't Permitted. Despite how egregious the students' academic failures and transgressions, teachers are not allowed to give zeroes even when students flat refuse to do classwork, take tests and engage in the learning environment.
These are just recent snippets of negative news that only see the light of day as networks of frustrated teachers take to their cell phones after school in a cyber support group to vent to one another about the craziness going on in their respective schools. The behavioral problems in middle and high schools in this system that were allowed to transpire would leave most citizens gobsmacked. Moreover, the behavioral issues are not only allowed to occur practically unabated, but are caused and perpetuated by the policies of the now departed Barbara Thompson. Teachers are continuously frustrated that the administration at the schools cannot seem to discourage some of the out of control behavior. What's more, it isn't always the fault of site leadership. Their hands have been tied by unwritten policies, veiled threats and frankly school board leadership whose actions boarder on being criminally negligent.
Personnel policies are currently under review by a team from the State Department of Education. While the system has nice, pretty policies they show accreditors, in practice these policies are ignored and a festering system of cronyism and social organization nepotism (read Greek letter-type societies) rules the day.
While I am no fan of the AEA, local teachers have been underrepresented by the local AEA organization (Montgomery Education Association) as its former director was close friends with Thompson and many legitimate grievances and concerns were swept under the rug while the two were cozy. And to demonstrate just how cozy, that local AEA rep was hired by Thompson to head MPS Human Resources. Isn't that special? That is like Lee Iaccoca luring Jimmy Hoffa away from the Teamsters to head Chrysler's Human Resources department back in the day. When labor and management are too cozy, the represented employees suffer. These employees pay out of their pockets for representation that were simply not getting. Not sure if malpractice can be charged, but if I were Henry Mabry, I would be very upset that this was allowed. But he is too busy putting together nonexistent special interest groups to sling mud in Alabama's political campaigns.
Of course, I think some of the AEA leadership has been too cozy with local school leaders in certain systems and effectively conspire to keep appearances of an adversarial relationship when in fact it is simply a front to make teachers believe they are having their interests represented and their issues given proper attention. In reality, the AEA is overly focused on shaking down the legislature and sticking its oversized proboscis into politics without a single legitimate care in making sure their represented employees who try to do their jobs get a fair shake dealing with issues in the trenches. All the while it is doing little to cull classrooms of the teachers who should have never been put in charge of children or those who checked out years ago and do little more than sit a desk, ignore the chaos going on around them and collect a check and benefits. This is not hyperbole, this is not fantasy and this is not exaggeration.
I often sit and listen to the stories of friends who fight the good fight in Montgomery and Birmingham area schools on a daily basis. Some of it makes my blood boil. And I always discount some of the things they share and still it makes me wonder why many local school systems haven't simply caved in on themselves.
Students barely in their teens regularly carry recreational drugs into schools in their bloodstreams and lungs and of course in their pockets and backpacks. Students from schools in lower income areas reportedly openly discuss criminal activity around teachers, caring little about repercussions. They have seen many times within the constructs of public education that actions don't always have consequences and when they do, those consequences are less than "consequential."
Granted, much of my observation is based on information coming from Montgomery area schools. However, Montgomery's issues are not unique and not the worst of the lot. Birmingham City Schools are on the verge of losing accreditation status and plummeting deserving students into a pit of obstacles with diplomas which may not be worth the paper they're printed on.
Birmingham City Schools problems are rooted in the dysfunctional and parochially geocentric leadership of the school board. Some of those symptoms are clearly in place in Montgomery's board, yet voters keep sending them back to fight and dig deeper holes for the system. As Einstein said, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Clearly many Montgomery County voters are totally oblivious or simply meet Einstein's criteria for insanity.
This was a rambling diatribe, but a cathartic one. It is unlikely many people will find and even fewer read this blog, but it helps me deal with the insanity that is rampant in government. And don't get me started on the city maintenance crew I observed yesterday. Six or seven city workers stood idly by and watched an eighth employee trim a tree limb. My only hope is that this was a class on tree trimming. Of course that makes me wonder if the lucky citizen whose tree was being trimmed is aware their trees are being used for such purposes.
I mean no offense to the new interim Montgomery Public Schools superintendent. I hear Ms. Allen is a nice and competent lady. But paying an interim more than the departed superintendent simply has the smell of rotting fish.
While the school system is not in dire financial straits (yet), it certainly could use some significant fiduciary discipline and should give more thought to quickly elevating the salary of a temporary superintendent above what the predecessor made. It is rare indeed where a sitting employee is called on to perform duties on an interim basis and not only get the same pay, but get a raise. This is an example of how government could benefit from an infusion of real world business savvy and know-how. That scenario simply doesn't occur in the corporate world, at least not with any businesses that wish to stay in business. Of course, this could signal that the interim superintendent is a permanent option despite declarations to the contrary.
One positive signal coming from MPS's interim chief is news that she is putting the Montgomery Mall boondoggle on the back burner.
It just makes me crazy when I hear some of the things that surface in this school system. So many of which never see the light of day in local news reports, primarily because the school system does its best to quash negative news from schools.
Did you hear about the student at a local high school who was hospitalized after being beaten at the school by other students? No? Well, you're not alone. I heard the student was in critical condition at one point, but cannot confirm that.
Did you hear the one about the representative from the State Department of Education who observed a teacher sleeping while the students in his charge ran amok in the classroom? No? Well, don't be surprised.
Do you know about the ZAP policy? Not surprised. ZAP stands for Zeroes Aren't Permitted. Despite how egregious the students' academic failures and transgressions, teachers are not allowed to give zeroes even when students flat refuse to do classwork, take tests and engage in the learning environment.
These are just recent snippets of negative news that only see the light of day as networks of frustrated teachers take to their cell phones after school in a cyber support group to vent to one another about the craziness going on in their respective schools. The behavioral problems in middle and high schools in this system that were allowed to transpire would leave most citizens gobsmacked. Moreover, the behavioral issues are not only allowed to occur practically unabated, but are caused and perpetuated by the policies of the now departed Barbara Thompson. Teachers are continuously frustrated that the administration at the schools cannot seem to discourage some of the out of control behavior. What's more, it isn't always the fault of site leadership. Their hands have been tied by unwritten policies, veiled threats and frankly school board leadership whose actions boarder on being criminally negligent.
Personnel policies are currently under review by a team from the State Department of Education. While the system has nice, pretty policies they show accreditors, in practice these policies are ignored and a festering system of cronyism and social organization nepotism (read Greek letter-type societies) rules the day.
While I am no fan of the AEA, local teachers have been underrepresented by the local AEA organization (Montgomery Education Association) as its former director was close friends with Thompson and many legitimate grievances and concerns were swept under the rug while the two were cozy. And to demonstrate just how cozy, that local AEA rep was hired by Thompson to head MPS Human Resources. Isn't that special? That is like Lee Iaccoca luring Jimmy Hoffa away from the Teamsters to head Chrysler's Human Resources department back in the day. When labor and management are too cozy, the represented employees suffer. These employees pay out of their pockets for representation that were simply not getting. Not sure if malpractice can be charged, but if I were Henry Mabry, I would be very upset that this was allowed. But he is too busy putting together nonexistent special interest groups to sling mud in Alabama's political campaigns.
Of course, I think some of the AEA leadership has been too cozy with local school leaders in certain systems and effectively conspire to keep appearances of an adversarial relationship when in fact it is simply a front to make teachers believe they are having their interests represented and their issues given proper attention. In reality, the AEA is overly focused on shaking down the legislature and sticking its oversized proboscis into politics without a single legitimate care in making sure their represented employees who try to do their jobs get a fair shake dealing with issues in the trenches. All the while it is doing little to cull classrooms of the teachers who should have never been put in charge of children or those who checked out years ago and do little more than sit a desk, ignore the chaos going on around them and collect a check and benefits. This is not hyperbole, this is not fantasy and this is not exaggeration.
I often sit and listen to the stories of friends who fight the good fight in Montgomery and Birmingham area schools on a daily basis. Some of it makes my blood boil. And I always discount some of the things they share and still it makes me wonder why many local school systems haven't simply caved in on themselves.
Students barely in their teens regularly carry recreational drugs into schools in their bloodstreams and lungs and of course in their pockets and backpacks. Students from schools in lower income areas reportedly openly discuss criminal activity around teachers, caring little about repercussions. They have seen many times within the constructs of public education that actions don't always have consequences and when they do, those consequences are less than "consequential."
Granted, much of my observation is based on information coming from Montgomery area schools. However, Montgomery's issues are not unique and not the worst of the lot. Birmingham City Schools are on the verge of losing accreditation status and plummeting deserving students into a pit of obstacles with diplomas which may not be worth the paper they're printed on.
Birmingham City Schools problems are rooted in the dysfunctional and parochially geocentric leadership of the school board. Some of those symptoms are clearly in place in Montgomery's board, yet voters keep sending them back to fight and dig deeper holes for the system. As Einstein said, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Clearly many Montgomery County voters are totally oblivious or simply meet Einstein's criteria for insanity.
This was a rambling diatribe, but a cathartic one. It is unlikely many people will find and even fewer read this blog, but it helps me deal with the insanity that is rampant in government. And don't get me started on the city maintenance crew I observed yesterday. Six or seven city workers stood idly by and watched an eighth employee trim a tree limb. My only hope is that this was a class on tree trimming. Of course that makes me wonder if the lucky citizen whose tree was being trimmed is aware their trees are being used for such purposes.
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
District 74 Primary ends in Run Off
Meadows and Polizos headed to November showdown
To the surprise of none, the three local Republicans clamoring for the seat vacated by legislator-turned lobbyist Jay Love ended Tuesday evening with two of the three headed for a runoff. To the surprise of some, Heather Sellers ended up a distant third while County Commissioner Dimitri Polizos and former Montgomery BOE president Charlotte Meadows will slug it out next month to become the presumptive electee of the district situated in central Montgomery.
No Democrats were dumb enough to throw away theirs and their party's money to qualify to run for the seat. The deadline for minor party and independent candidates has been extended until October 15, so there might be a general election after all.
Sellers showing disappointing
Many were surprised about Seller's distant third place finish as she was clearly seen as working much harder and being much more visible than the other two candidates. She also had the braintrust of her husband Rick, a longtime veteran of Alabama and national politics. But it is not surprising that her main issue didn't stick with voters. Running on the anti-crime issue in one of the city's safer districts, the issue simply didn't hit voters where they live. Many of these residents are straight down the center, middle class, working family people. Many struggle with putting their kids in private schools to save them from the corrupt and stenchful morass of academic folly that is the Montgomery Public Schools.
It was my contention from the outset that Sellers, a current member of the school board, and Meadows, its former president, would drag that baggage into the race, particularly in this legislative district. Meadows' made no friends with the once powerful teacher's union in the state and it spent some of its money hidden by a faux special interest group to sling some late mud at Meadows. Sellers got a nice bump of name recognition the week before the election as she was out front and visible in the ousting of embattled superintendent Barbara Thompson, whose failures and incompetence is a subject for another time. But any voters who viewed Sellers and Meadows as part of the solution and not part of the problem were few and probably split between the two. More likely, there was simply nothing either candidate brought out that energized or grew their base.
Meadows sat back, bought the most airtime on local TV and, as one insider said bluntly, "tried to buy the election" with the deepest pockets of all three candidates. Meanwhile Sellers tried (and failed) to ramp up her visibility in the city, albeit not in a particularly targeted manner by comparison. Many voters reported being robo-called from a number showing up on caller ID as her husband Richard Sellers and an apparent recorded message from him. While the robo-call was impersonal and usually unwelcome, Richard Sellers' name recognition has all but dwindled with most of the local electorate. His failed run against Richard Shelby, when Alabama's senior senator was still a Democrat, had all but faded from memory and relevance. Perhaps he pointed his wife in the direction of the type of tired old campaigning that is no longer effective, particularly in short term special elections. Polizos employed savvy consultants who were well versed in targeting likely voters, reaching out with more sophisticated approaches to the voter in the digital age. Polizos' surgical strike proved impressive and came close to putting Meadows out of the race along with Sellers.
No one can doubt Sellers' work ethic, but work is only part of the equation. She worked hard, but as E.G. Marshall's character said in Christmas Vacation, "so do washing machines." The superficial rhetoric about crime turned off a lot of the smarter electorate as her simple call to lock up all the criminals and throw away the key is an overly simplistic tilt at the issue. Never mind the other side of coin where Alabama's prisons are stuffed fuller than a Christmas goose and no one wants a new prison in their town even if the state had the money to build new penitentiaries. And the state can ill afford another round of intervention from federal judges who could fine the state millions, release prisoners in a wholesale manner... or both.
Back to those still in the race
The showdown between Meadows and Polizos shouldn't prove to be a turnaround of the fortunes they experienced in the primary. While Meadows might pick up some of Seller's support, it is unlikely to be significant. Further, it is likely the Alabama Education Association will launch another attack on Meadows in the days leading up to the runoff. As most Alabama voters barely peek behind the curtain of political ads and rhetoric, the mud will likely stick although most Republicans wear AEA opposition like a badge of honor. However, just ask Bradley Byrne what AEA's heavily-veiled, snake oil political tactics can do to a candidate in a Republican primary.
Perhaps the most interesting battle is yet to be fought. If Polizos does go on to victory as most political insiders predict, he will get little rest and little time to prove he is worthy of the seat. While legislators are focused on 2014 re-election plans and fundraising already, Polizos (or Meadows as the case may be) will be behind the 8-ball headed into the 2014 regular elections under new district lines. Neither Polizos nor Meadows are particularly well known for their community visibility outside showing up to Commission meetings, or school board meetings in Meadows' case. They are not particularly engaged in high profile community activities.
Rep. Joe Hubbard has made no secret of his plans to seek the seat under the newly drawn lines after his district was whisked away to a new home north of the River Region. While Hubbard is busy shaking off lawyers sicced on him by Speaker Mike Hubbard right now, his attention will likely be refocused on winning the seat from whomever takes the short term job for one legislative session. It will be interesting to see if Hubbard can generate any traction as an independent. He is young, energetic and outspoken. Younger, more moderate and politically savvy voters do identify with him and have been drawn to his image of an outsider in the statehouse fighting the good fight.
Hubbard is still trying to figure out where his political ideology lies. Philosophically, an argument can be made that his heart is moderate, leaning conservative. But he has been hesitant to step out great grandfather's significant populist shadow. For those who are unaware, Hubbard's the great grandson of Alabama political legend Lister Hill, who served in Congress for more 46 years, including more than 30 in the senate where he was the 7th Majority Whip of the Senate.
Hill's legacy includes several New Deal era projects that brought health care to the under-served in rural Alabama, electric power to north Alabama in the form of the Tennessee Valley Authority and low interest loans for companies and co-ops to bring telephone service to rural Alabama.
Until Hubbard settles in on his personal political philosophy and finds an identity voters can identify with, he might struggle against an entrenched incumbent, even if that incumbent isn't deeply entrenched. Many people were salivating at the prospect of watching former Rep. Jay Love and Hubbard scratch it out like two rival alley cats next year. But Love's decision to cash out and take a lucrative lobbying job with one of Alabama's leading special interest groups brought that potentially juicy showdown to a grinding halt. Hubbard and Love had no love lost (no pun intended) between them in the wake of the surreptitious methods used to pass the Alabama Education Accountability Act in the 2013 regular session.
A showdown between Polizos or Meadows and Hubbard just isn't as sexy. Polizos has a quiet grandfatherly demeanor which would contrast with Hubbard's burgeoning young maverick personality, but finding an issue on which to cast down the gauntlet between the two might prove less than exciting.
To the surprise of none, the three local Republicans clamoring for the seat vacated by legislator-turned lobbyist Jay Love ended Tuesday evening with two of the three headed for a runoff. To the surprise of some, Heather Sellers ended up a distant third while County Commissioner Dimitri Polizos and former Montgomery BOE president Charlotte Meadows will slug it out next month to become the presumptive electee of the district situated in central Montgomery.
No Democrats were dumb enough to throw away theirs and their party's money to qualify to run for the seat. The deadline for minor party and independent candidates has been extended until October 15, so there might be a general election after all.
Sellers showing disappointing
Many were surprised about Seller's distant third place finish as she was clearly seen as working much harder and being much more visible than the other two candidates. She also had the braintrust of her husband Rick, a longtime veteran of Alabama and national politics. But it is not surprising that her main issue didn't stick with voters. Running on the anti-crime issue in one of the city's safer districts, the issue simply didn't hit voters where they live. Many of these residents are straight down the center, middle class, working family people. Many struggle with putting their kids in private schools to save them from the corrupt and stenchful morass of academic folly that is the Montgomery Public Schools.
It was my contention from the outset that Sellers, a current member of the school board, and Meadows, its former president, would drag that baggage into the race, particularly in this legislative district. Meadows' made no friends with the once powerful teacher's union in the state and it spent some of its money hidden by a faux special interest group to sling some late mud at Meadows. Sellers got a nice bump of name recognition the week before the election as she was out front and visible in the ousting of embattled superintendent Barbara Thompson, whose failures and incompetence is a subject for another time. But any voters who viewed Sellers and Meadows as part of the solution and not part of the problem were few and probably split between the two. More likely, there was simply nothing either candidate brought out that energized or grew their base.
Meadows sat back, bought the most airtime on local TV and, as one insider said bluntly, "tried to buy the election" with the deepest pockets of all three candidates. Meanwhile Sellers tried (and failed) to ramp up her visibility in the city, albeit not in a particularly targeted manner by comparison. Many voters reported being robo-called from a number showing up on caller ID as her husband Richard Sellers and an apparent recorded message from him. While the robo-call was impersonal and usually unwelcome, Richard Sellers' name recognition has all but dwindled with most of the local electorate. His failed run against Richard Shelby, when Alabama's senior senator was still a Democrat, had all but faded from memory and relevance. Perhaps he pointed his wife in the direction of the type of tired old campaigning that is no longer effective, particularly in short term special elections. Polizos employed savvy consultants who were well versed in targeting likely voters, reaching out with more sophisticated approaches to the voter in the digital age. Polizos' surgical strike proved impressive and came close to putting Meadows out of the race along with Sellers.
No one can doubt Sellers' work ethic, but work is only part of the equation. She worked hard, but as E.G. Marshall's character said in Christmas Vacation, "so do washing machines." The superficial rhetoric about crime turned off a lot of the smarter electorate as her simple call to lock up all the criminals and throw away the key is an overly simplistic tilt at the issue. Never mind the other side of coin where Alabama's prisons are stuffed fuller than a Christmas goose and no one wants a new prison in their town even if the state had the money to build new penitentiaries. And the state can ill afford another round of intervention from federal judges who could fine the state millions, release prisoners in a wholesale manner... or both.
Back to those still in the race
The showdown between Meadows and Polizos shouldn't prove to be a turnaround of the fortunes they experienced in the primary. While Meadows might pick up some of Seller's support, it is unlikely to be significant. Further, it is likely the Alabama Education Association will launch another attack on Meadows in the days leading up to the runoff. As most Alabama voters barely peek behind the curtain of political ads and rhetoric, the mud will likely stick although most Republicans wear AEA opposition like a badge of honor. However, just ask Bradley Byrne what AEA's heavily-veiled, snake oil political tactics can do to a candidate in a Republican primary.
Perhaps the most interesting battle is yet to be fought. If Polizos does go on to victory as most political insiders predict, he will get little rest and little time to prove he is worthy of the seat. While legislators are focused on 2014 re-election plans and fundraising already, Polizos (or Meadows as the case may be) will be behind the 8-ball headed into the 2014 regular elections under new district lines. Neither Polizos nor Meadows are particularly well known for their community visibility outside showing up to Commission meetings, or school board meetings in Meadows' case. They are not particularly engaged in high profile community activities.
Rep. Joe Hubbard has made no secret of his plans to seek the seat under the newly drawn lines after his district was whisked away to a new home north of the River Region. While Hubbard is busy shaking off lawyers sicced on him by Speaker Mike Hubbard right now, his attention will likely be refocused on winning the seat from whomever takes the short term job for one legislative session. It will be interesting to see if Hubbard can generate any traction as an independent. He is young, energetic and outspoken. Younger, more moderate and politically savvy voters do identify with him and have been drawn to his image of an outsider in the statehouse fighting the good fight.
Hubbard is still trying to figure out where his political ideology lies. Philosophically, an argument can be made that his heart is moderate, leaning conservative. But he has been hesitant to step out great grandfather's significant populist shadow. For those who are unaware, Hubbard's the great grandson of Alabama political legend Lister Hill, who served in Congress for more 46 years, including more than 30 in the senate where he was the 7th Majority Whip of the Senate.
Hill's legacy includes several New Deal era projects that brought health care to the under-served in rural Alabama, electric power to north Alabama in the form of the Tennessee Valley Authority and low interest loans for companies and co-ops to bring telephone service to rural Alabama.
Until Hubbard settles in on his personal political philosophy and finds an identity voters can identify with, he might struggle against an entrenched incumbent, even if that incumbent isn't deeply entrenched. Many people were salivating at the prospect of watching former Rep. Jay Love and Hubbard scratch it out like two rival alley cats next year. But Love's decision to cash out and take a lucrative lobbying job with one of Alabama's leading special interest groups brought that potentially juicy showdown to a grinding halt. Hubbard and Love had no love lost (no pun intended) between them in the wake of the surreptitious methods used to pass the Alabama Education Accountability Act in the 2013 regular session.
A showdown between Polizos or Meadows and Hubbard just isn't as sexy. Polizos has a quiet grandfatherly demeanor which would contrast with Hubbard's burgeoning young maverick personality, but finding an issue on which to cast down the gauntlet between the two might prove less than exciting.
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